Mozambique and the LNG Moment: A Kingdom, A Basin, and the Edge of Influence

March 2, 2025

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By Sunrise Partners


We are living through what one might call an epoch of constrained imagination. Energy policy, once the bastion of realism and statecraft, has now been diluted by press releases, climate virtue-signaling, and hedge fund gospel. But Mozambique, a state often mistaken for a footnote in history, is on the cusp of reminding the world that gas is still geopolitical gold—and the wise will be positioned accordingly.


The Rovuma Basin, off Mozambique’s northern coast, holds not just gas—but gravity. Gravity that will shift maritime routes, strategic alliances, and the energy posture of dozens of nations. The Coral South FLNG project is operational. ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies have billions on the table. Yet the full symphony of Mozambique’s LNG future has only just begun—and guess who’s not leading the orchestra? Saudi Arabia.


That is, not yet.


Enter the premise: Mozambique doesn’t need more onlookers. It needs partners who understand that LNG isn’t just an export—it’s influence, it’s infrastructure, and it’s insurance against energy volatility in a multipolar world. Saudi Arabia, seeking long-term energy diversification, access to flexible offtake, and a stronger foothold across the Indian Ocean rim, should not approach this with the indifference of a banker in a Geneva boardroom.


Sunrise Partners sees what others don’t. We’re embedded in the local regulatory dialogues. We navigate the mosaic of provincial governors, concessionary frameworks, and community engagement mandates that can make or break an LNG venture. We don’t hand over a PDF—we build political durabilityoperational credibility, and financial sustainabilityin one of the world’s most promising hydrocarbon theaters.


And we offer something even rarer than natural gas: a mechanism of trust between Riyadh and Maputo.


The time for mere memoranda is over. LNG, in this basin, is an arena. The players are stepping in. Will the Kingdom take its place, or watch from the bleachers while others write the next chapter of African energy diplomacy?

April 18, 2025
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